How to short the bubbliest firmsSubscribeThe Economist ProLog inMenuSkip to contentSubscribeThe Economist ProLog inMenuThe world in briefCatch up on global daily news1843Compelling long readsThe World Ahead 2026Future-gazing analysis, predictions and speculationPodcastsTune into captivating conversationsVideoWatch engaging short filmsInsiderBehind the scenes at The EconomistNewslettersCurated news, direct to your inboxWeekly editionThis weekPast editionsWeekly editionThis weekPast editionsCurrent topicsCurrent topicsWar in the Middle EastWar in UkraineClimate changeGeopoliticsThe world economyArtificial intelligenceTrump approval trackerWorldWorldThe world this weekChinaUnited StatesEuropeBritainMiddle EastAfricaAsiaThe AmericasInternationalBusiness & economicsBusiness & economicsBusinessFinance & economicsBig Mac indexEconomic & financial indicatorsOpinionOpinionLeadersColumnsBy InvitationLetters to the editorIn depthIn depthScience & technologyBriefingGraphic detailInteractivesThe Economist explainsSpecial reportsTechnology QuarterlyEssayPrimersSchools briefCulture, history & societyCulture, history & societyCultureThe Economist readsObituaryMilitary historyArchive 1945GamesOur A-to-ZsOur A-to-ZsEconomicsAmerican politicsMilitary termsInternational relationsWeekly editionThe world in briefWar in the Middle EastWar in UkraineUnited StatesWorld Ahead 2026The world economyBusinessArtificial intelligenceCartoons & gamesundefined undefinedSubscribe to The EconomistUnlock unlimited access to all our award-winning journalism, subscriber-only podcasts and newslettersSubscribe to The EconomistUnlock unlimited access to all our award-winning journalism, subscriber-only podcasts and newslettersSubscribeManage accountLog outManage accountLog outFinance & economics | ButtonwoodHow to short the bubbliest firmsPrivate markets present fearsome challengesShareIllustration: Satoshi Kambayashi Nov 26th 2025|4 min readViewers of “The Big Short”, a film released in 2015, based on a book by Michael Lewis, might remember the travails of investors who sought to short-sell American housing debt in the run-up to the collapse of Lehman Brothers. A growing number of investors now fear that America could be in for a jolt of a similar type, if not scale. And it could emerge, they think, from private markets and unlisted corners of the tech industry.Explore moreOpinionColumnsButtonwoodStocksFinance & economicsThis article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “The next big short”From the November 29th 2025 editionDiscover stories from this section and more in the list of contents⇒Explore the editionShareReuse this contentMore from Finance & economicsIs America’s jobs market nearing a cliff?Bosses, investors and policymakers are worried, but there are reasons for hopeSelf-driving cars will transform urban economiesA robotaxi boom is coming. The impacts might be broader than you expectChina’s property market is (somehow) worseningGovernment remedies are not up to the jobNarendra Modi plans to free up India’s giant labour forceSocialist employment restrictions will be swept away Free exchangeOne weird trick to solve the affordability crisisIf voters dislike big numbers, there is a purely nominal fixInvestors expect AI use to soar. That’s not happeningRecent surveys point to flatlining business adoptionLinkedInInstagramFacebookXTikTokYouTubeWhatsAppGet The Economist app on iOS or AndroidThe EconomistThe EconomistAboutReuse our contentSubscribeThe Economist ProSecureDropThe Economist GroupThe Economist GroupThe Economist GroupEconomist IntelligenceEconomist ImpactEconomist Impact EventsEconomist Education CoursesContactContactHelp and supportAdvertisePress centreAffiliate programmeCareersCareersWorking hereExecutive JobsTo enhance your experience and ensure our website runs smoothly, we use cookies and similar technologies.Manage cookiesTerms of usePrivacyCookie PolicyAccessibilityModern Slavery StatementSitemapCalifornia Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) Opt-Out IconYour Privacy ChoicesRegistered in England and Wales. No. 236383 | Registered office: The Adelphi, 1-11 John Adam Street, London, WC2N 6HT | VAT Reg No: GB 340 436 876© The Economist Newspaper Limited 2025

The article, published in The Economist on November 29th, 2025, examines a growing investor concern: the potential for a similar, though perhaps less severe, disruption within the American economy, stemming from privately held tech firms. The piece draws a parallel to the “Big Short” narrative, referencing the 2015 film and Michael Lewis’s book, which highlighted the difficulties experienced by investors attempting to short-sell American housing debt leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. The core argument revolves around the increasing apprehension of investors regarding the vulnerability of unlisted tech companies.

The article posits that a substantial number of investors anticipate a forthcoming “jolt” to the economy, originating from this specific sector. This concern isn't based on a broad macroeconomic analysis but rather a focused observation of dynamics within private markets and the tech industry. The central premise is that these unlisted firms represent an area of potential instability, echoing the lessons learned from the broader housing market collapse. Investors, recognizing this, are proactively seeking ways to mitigate potential losses by short-selling these companies’ obligations.

The article’s framing suggests a degree of déjà vu, recalling the strategies employed during the 2008 crisis. The shift in focus from publicly traded assets to privately held tech companies indicates a reassessment of risk profiles, suggesting a perceived weakness within the tech sector's valuation and profitability. It implies a lack of transparency and potentially inflated valuations within this segment of the market.

Furthermore, the piece highlights the anticipatory nature of the investment community. Investors are not solely reacting to current data but instead, are preparing for a potential downturn, driven by a perceived systemic vulnerability. This proactive stance, prioritizing risk mitigation, is explicitly stated, suggesting a calculated attempt to capitalize on anticipated instability.

The article’s relevance extends beyond simply describing a specific investment strategy. It touches upon broader themes of market confidence, systemic risk, and the potential for unforeseen shifts in economic dynamics. The comparison to the 2008 crisis underscores the importance of vigilance and the potential for past mistakes to inform present-day assessments. It highlights the ability of investors to recognize patterns and exploit vulnerabilities, even within seemingly prosperous sectors. The overall tone suggests a cautionary narrative, urging investors to carefully scrutinize the valuations and underlying risks associated with privately held tech companies.