Personal BlogSean Muirhead← Back to blogJanuary 18, 2026Targeted BetsThe tech job market has been tough, leaving many applicants feeling hopeless. I've seen this first hand in my conversations with dozens of friends and across more than 100 job interviews. Here is my response to these people: you can drastically increase your odds of getting a job by making targeted bets rather than broadly applying and hoping something sticks.How do I make a targeted bet?A targeted bet begins with focus. Instead of applying broadly, identify 5-10 specific opportunities you genuinely want. In the context of job searching, these are roles where at least one of the following is true:You are specifically interested in the job for reasons other than the money. It is unlikely that other applicants want the job as badly as you do.You have a unique connection to the company. This usually comes in the form of either knowing, going to the same school as, or even growing up in the same hometown as a current employee.Once the list has been narrowed, your goal is to stand out. Here are a few ways to do that:Get in contact with current employees at the company. It is important that you send more than one email. I've gotten dozens of emails asking for meetings and referrals. The only time I actually respond to these is after the second email.Do not ask employees for a referral! Most companies offer referral bonuses, so employees are incentivized to give you one if you can convince them that you will do well in the role.If the company is <30 people, reach out to the CEO directly. A candidate who is particularly interested in the mission and bold enough to reach out to the CEO is a signal for a strong employee. Again, send more than one email.Why does this work?By narrowing your opportunities, you end up being able to spend more time on each one. Let's assume that a targeted bet increases your chances of getting a job from 1% to 10%. The average number of jobs you'd need to apply to before getting one thus jumps from 100 to just 10! Competitive systems reward effort per attempt, not volume.Targeted bets beyond job searchesTargeted bets apply to more than just the job search. I recently scored the first apartment I applied to in a highly-competitive San Francisco neighborhood. I was specific in where and what I was looking for, so when the opportunity came up, I was able to devote lots of time and energy into getting it. I applied just 6 hours after the place came on the market. Seeing that there were lots of people at the tour, I sent a follow up email to the leasing agent explaining how I'd always wanted to live in the neighborhood. If I had been worried about the status of my other applications, I may not have had the time to write that follow up email and secure my apartment.The Real UpsideThe glory in making targeted bets is that you get to spend more time on the things that you really care about. I would advise against mass-applying to those entry-level jobs you don't really care about and instead start getting in contact with people at your dream job.LinkedIn

Sean Muirhead’s blog post outlines a strategy for navigating the competitive tech job market by shifting from broad, generalized applications to focused, intentional efforts known as “targeted bets.” Drawing from personal experiences of conducting over 100 job interviews and supporting friends through similar challenges, Muirhead argues that traditional approaches—such as applying to numerous roles without a clear focus—often lead to frustration and low success rates. Instead, he advocates for identifying 5–10 specific opportunities that align with personal interests or unique connections, then dedicating significant time and energy to each. This method, he claims, increases the likelihood of securing a position by prioritizing depth over breadth in job searching.

The core of Muirhead’s approach lies in the concept of focus. He emphasizes that targeted bets require identifying roles where candidates have a genuine interest beyond compensation, where the position is less desirable to others, or where they possess a distinct connection to the company. This could include knowing an employee personally, sharing a school or hometown with someone at the organization, or having a strong personal affinity for the company’s mission. By narrowing down opportunities to those that resonate on a deeper level, applicants can channel their efforts more effectively. Muirhead illustrates this by noting that when individuals focus on a small number of roles, they can invest more time in tailoring their applications and building relationships with key stakeholders.

A critical component of executing a targeted bet is proactive engagement with current employees. Muirhead advises reaching out to these individuals, but he cautions against explicitly requesting a referral. Instead, he suggests sending multiple emails to demonstrate persistence and genuine interest. He explains that employees are more likely to recommend candidates who have shown consistent effort, as referral bonuses incentivize them to advocate for individuals they believe will succeed. Additionally, he highlights that in smaller companies (those with fewer than 30 employees), direct communication with the CEO can be particularly impactful. A candidate who demonstrates boldness by reaching out to the company’s leadership and clearly articulates their alignment with its mission signals a strong commitment, which can differentiate them from other applicants.

Muirhead also addresses the psychological and practical benefits of this strategy. By narrowing the scope of applications, candidates avoid spreading themselves thin across numerous roles, which can lead to burnout and diminished quality in their submissions. He uses a mathematical analogy to underscore the efficiency of targeted bets: if a traditional approach yields a 1% chance of success per application, an individual would need to apply to 100 roles to have a reasonable chance. In contrast, a targeted approach that elevates the probability to 10% reduces this number to just 10 applications. This shift, he argues, aligns with how competitive systems reward effort per attempt rather than the volume of attempts. The underlying principle is that concentrated, high-quality efforts are more likely to yield results than superficially broad applications.

Beyond job searches, Muirhead applies the concept of targeted bets to other areas of life, such as securing housing in a competitive market. He recounts his experience of landing an apartment in San Francisco by focusing on a specific location and acting swiftly when the opportunity arose. Within six hours of the listing appearing, he submitted an application and followed up with a personalized email to the leasing agent. This follow-up highlighted his long-term desire to live in the neighborhood, which he believes helped differentiate him from other candidates. The example illustrates how the same principles of focus and proactive engagement can be applied to non-professional contexts, reinforcing the idea that targeted bets require both strategic planning and decisive action.

Muirhead’s broader argument centers on the value of prioritizing quality over quantity in all endeavors. He encourages readers to avoid mass-applying for roles they are indifferent about, instead dedicating time to build relationships with organizations that align with their values or interests. This approach not only increases the chances of success but also ensures that individuals are investing their energy in opportunities they genuinely care about. By emphasizing the importance of personal connection, persistence, and strategic focus, he positions targeted bets as a transformative method for navigating competitive environments.

The blog post concludes with an implicit call to action, urging readers to reconsider their job-search strategies and adopt a more deliberate, personalized approach. Muirhead’s insights are framed as practical advice rather than theoretical musings, grounded in his own experiences and the tangible outcomes of his method. While he acknowledges that this approach requires discomfort—such as reaching out to executives or spending time on fewer applications—he frames it as a necessary trade-off for achieving meaningful results. Ultimately, the post positions targeted bets as a way to reclaim agency in a system that often feels overwhelming, offering a framework for turning perceived limitations into opportunities for differentiation.