What We Know About the Winter Storm About to Hit the US—and What We Don’t | WIREDSkip to main contentMenuSECURITYPOLITICSTHE BIG STORYBUSINESSSCIENCECULTUREREVIEWSMenuAccountAccountNewslettersSecurityPoliticsThe Big StoryBusinessScienceCultureReviewsChevronMoreExpandThe Big InterviewMagazineEventsWIRED InsiderWIRED ConsultingNewslettersPodcastsVideoMerchSearchSearchSign InSign InMolly TaftScienceJan 21, 2026 2:03 PMWhat We Know About the Winter Storm About to Hit the US—and What We Don’tA huge portion of the United States is going to be hit with snow or freezing rain this weekend. Exactly where, what, and how much remains uncertain.Photograph: Getty ImagesSave StorySave this storySave StorySave this storyOver the past weekend, when weather models first started forecasting a winter storm that would sweep over large parts of the country, Sean Sublette, a meteorologist living in Virginia, started telling people in his area to prepare for snow. At the time, Sublette says, “a lot of the data started to point to a substantial snow storm for the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, with significant ice farther southward into Carolina's Tennessee Valley.”Then, Sublette woke up Wednesday morning. “I go through the data again, and I go, ‘Oh, fuck,’” he says. The models were now structuring the storm much differently.“Some of the data is putting down crippling amounts of ice for my area of central Virginia,” he says. “This does not mean I am buying it hook, line, and sinker yet. But it is a sobering chunk of data to suggest heavy freezing rain, which is that type of precipitation that's liquid until it touches something and then freezes. That's the stuff that weighs down power lines. That's the stuff that weighs down the trees and brings them over on top of the power lines.”Meteorologists who spoke to WIRED say that it’s still too early to pinpoint exactly how this weekend’s storm is going to affect different regions of the country. But, they say, people in several states should begin thinking ahead to the weekend and next week, and keep an eye out for more up-to-date forecasts from local trusted sources over the next few days.On Wednesday morning, the National Weather Service issued a series of possible forecasts—what it called “Key Messages”—on the upcoming storm, predicting heavy snow starting on Friday falling from the Rocky Mountains and Plains regions and moving to the East Coast on Sunday. Freezing rain and sleet are projected to hit states south of the snow zone. Maps provided by the NWS show the storm hitting nearly 30 states, from as far west as New Mexico and Texas, all the way up to Maine and as far south as Georgia.There’s still a lot of uncertainty about how the storm will form and how it will affect specific areas. “We know that this storm system is absolutely waterlogged,” says Matthew Cappucci, an atmospheric scientist and meteorologist, who contributes to The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang. The system, Cappucci says, gathered up a lot of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, guaranteeing some form of precipitation for much of the southern and eastern United States. But there’s still uncertainty about how other atmospheric elements will shape the storm. That includes a cold, low-pressure eddy of air in the higher levels of the atmosphere (called, in meteorologic speak, an upper level low) that’s forming over the Pacific, whose formation will help determine how and where precipitation will fall.“A wide swath of the southern and eastern United States will see 2-plus inches’ worth of water,” says Cappucci. “Whether that comes down as rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, or a combination remains the wild card.”The National Weather Service’s announcements are not winter weather warnings, Sublette says, but “messages”; forecasts will get more specific as the storm keeps developing. But there’s enough data available to start preparing for worst-case scenarios. Many of the regions that could be hit by the storm are historically underprepared for extreme winter conditions: A 2014 ice storm that swept across portions of Georgia and South Carolina left some areas without power for days. This storm will hit just a few weeks shy of the five-year anniversary of a winter storm in Texas that caused a two-week power outage and ultimately killed nearly 250 people.A stretch of predicted cold temperatures immediately following the storm, similar to the one that hit Texas, could also create hazardous conditions—especially if snow or ice take out power lines or make driving difficult.“It's 20 degrees,” Sublette says, imagining a scenario in which freezing rain hits Virginia. “Stuff starts weighing down. Stuff starts getting knocked over, and you’ve got thousands of power outages by Monday morning. People start losing heat. It's only 28 degrees in the afternoon—oh my God, we've got a problem.”Despite some of the dire predictions being distributed online, both Sublette and Cappucci caution against buying into specific scenarios days out from a possible storm.“There is an abundance of misinformation out there and information overload,” Cappucci says. “Ultimately, the public has to be able to sift through the noise and find a trusted source, but that's becoming increasingly difficult in a sea of clickbait, hype, and monetized posts.”You Might Also LikeIn your inbox: Maxwell Zeff's dispatch from the heart of the AI worldWelcome to the future of noise cancelingBig Story: Cashing in on the apocalypseSo long, GPT-5. Hello, QwenLivestream AMA: Welcome to the Chinese centuryMolly Taft is a senior writer for WIRED, covering climate change, energy, and the environment. Previously, they were a reporter and editor at Drilled, an investigative climate multimedia reporting project. 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This winter storm forecast presents a complex and evolving situation, marked by significant uncertainty and the potential for substantial disruption. Sean Sublette, a meteorologist based in Virginia, initially alerted his local community to prepare for substantial snowfall and freezing rain, driven by early data suggesting a substantial storm impacting the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. However, subsequent data analysis revealed a shift in the storm’s trajectory, indicating a risk of crippling ice accumulation in his own area of central Virginia – a stark contrast to the initial projections. This highlights the dynamic nature of weather forecasting and the challenges in predicting storm behavior.

The National Weather Service (NWS) issued “Key Messages” – forecasts intended as preliminary guidance – anticipating heavy snowfall originating in the Rocky Mountains and Plains, moving eastward to the East Coast by Sunday. Simultaneously, freezing rain and sleet were predicted south of the snow zone. The storm’s potential impact stretches across nearly 30 states, including New Mexico, Texas, Maine, and Georgia, demonstrating the wide geographic scope of this system. Importantly, the NWS's initial messages were designated as forecasts, acknowledging the inherent uncertainty and emphasizing that more specific predictions will emerge as the storm develops.

A key element driving the potential severity is the storm’s waterlogged state, according to atmospheric scientist Matthew Cappucci. The system’s absorption of significant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico guarantees a substantial precipitation event across the southern and eastern United States. The exact form of precipitation—snow, sleet, freezing rain, or a combination – remains a critical wildcard. This is directly linked to the storm's interaction with a specific atmospheric feature: a cold, low-pressure eddy aloft, or "upper level low," forming over the Pacific. The intensity and positioning of this eddy will determine where and how precipitation falls.

The anticipated broad swath of 2-plus inches of water across the southern and eastern US underscores the magnitude of the potential impact. However, whether this moisture descends as precipitation, or remains as liquid water, is crucial. The final form of precipitation critically depends on the atmospheric conditions, particularly the influence of that upper level low.

Despite the potential severity, it’s crucial to approach the forecasts with caution, as highlighted by both Sublette and Cappucci. There is a considerable amount of misinformation circulating, creating information overload. The public needs to critically evaluate forecasts, relying on trusted sources and adjusting expectations as the storm unfolds. The potential for power outages – exemplified by the risks depicted by Sublette’s scenario of 20-degree temperatures leading to widespread icing – further emphasizes the vulnerability of infrastructure. The timing of this storm, coinciding with the five-year anniversary of the devastating Texas winter storm of 2014, adds to the urgency.

Furthermore, the anticipated cold temperatures following the precipitation event represent another significant hazard. The combination of snow or ice and subsequent cold temperatures exacerbates the risk of infrastructure damage, including downed power lines, making driving conditions hazardous. A 2014 ice storm in Georgia and South Carolina serves as a stark reminder of the potential consequences when combined with such conditions. It’s a system where a cascade of effects could easily occur.