Elon Musk Sure Made Lots of Predictions at Davos | WIREDSkip to main contentMenuSECURITYPOLITICSTHE BIG STORYBUSINESSSCIENCECULTUREREVIEWSMenuAccountAccountNewslettersBest Office ChairsBone Conduction HeadphonesBest Digital NotebooksSmart Plug GuideStreaming DealsDeals DeliveredSecurityPoliticsThe Big StoryBusinessScienceCultureReviewsChevronMoreExpandThe Big InterviewMagazineEventsWIRED InsiderWIRED ConsultingNewslettersPodcastsVideoMerchSearchSearchSign InSign InAarian MarshallGearJan 22, 2026 3:57 PMElon Musk Sure Made Lots of Predictions at DavosHumanoid robots, space travel, the science of aging—Musk weighed in on all of it at this week’s World Economic Forum. But his predictions rarely work out the way he says they will.Elon Musk speaks during the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, on Thursday.Photograph: Harun Ozalp/Getty ImagesCommentLoaderSave StorySave this storyCommentLoaderSave StorySave this storyElon Musk, the richest man on earth, is very good at making money. His track record of predicting the future is less stellar.Through the years, Musk has made several outlandish forecasts—about self-driving cars, about space exploration, about brain chips, about robotics—that have not panned out. The Tesla CEO and former steward of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency seems at least a bit self-aware. During a surprise appearance and his debut at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Thursday, he concluded with something like a mission statement: “Generally, for quality of life, it’s better to err on the side of being an optimist and wrong than a pessimist and right.”Still, when one’s companies have their hands in so many industries—autos and robotics (Tesla), space travel and telecommunications (SpaceX), social media (X), artificial intelligence (xAI), infrastructure (the Boring Company), and neurotechnology (Neuralink)—even off-the-cuff predictions can move global markets. Here are a few prognostications Musk made on Thursday:Aliens Don’t Exist (Probably)Elon Musk opened his Davos remarks—in a conversation with friend and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink—with a discussion of his values, and a few jokes about aliens. “We have 9,000 satellites up there, and not once have we had to maneuver around an alien spaceship,” Musk said. “We need to assume that life and consciousness are extremely rare and it might only be us.”Humanoid Robots Will Transform Human Life—and Go on Sale in 2027Musk started making promises about Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot, in 2021. Most recently, he said Tesla—now rebranded as a robotics and autonomy company—would make thousands of Optimus robots in 2025. But the company is reportedly still struggling to get Optimus’ hand to work. That did not stop Musk from repeating in Davos some of his most far-reaching claims about the way the product would change human life forever.“If we have ubiquitous AI that is essentially free, or close to it, and ubiquitous robotics, you will have an explosion, an expansion of the global economy that is truly beyond all precedent,” Musk said. What does that mean for you? Billions of robots powered by artificial intelligence will outnumber humans and “saturate all human needs,” he said. “You won’t be able to think of something to ask the robot for at a certain point, there will be such an abundance of goods and services.”But first, of course, Tesla will have to start selling Optimus, which Musk said would happen late next year.Robotaxis Will Be “Very Widespread” in the US by 2027In 2025, after years of self-driving promises, Tesla finally launched a limited robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, albeit with a human safety monitor sitting in each passenger seat. That didn’t stop Musk from asserting that most of the US population would have access to robotaxis by the end of that year.Now, in 2026, Musk is moving the goalposts again. He said Thursday that his company’s robotaxis would be “very widespread by the end of this year in the US.” If history is a guide, that won’t happen—but the company is working on launching robotaxi service in a handful of states with laxer regulations, including Arizona, Florida, and Nevada.Human Aging Is a “Very Solvable Problem”Musk acknowledged that he hasn’t spent much time investigating human aging. But he predicted that there would be a solution. “When we find what causes aging, we’ll find it’s incredibly obvious,” he said. Get to it, Silicon Valley peers.SpaceX Will Complete a Fully Reusable Rocket This YearSpaceX has been working on its reusable rocket platform Starship for a decade, and in those years, it has missed several of Musk’s big space deadlines. He predicted in 2020 that a crewed Mars mission would launch by 2024. He said that Starship would reach orbit by 2022, though the company didn’t pull it off until last year.At Davos, Musk repeated a promise from last year: that Starship would be fully reusable by the end of this year, cutting space travel costs by “a factor of 100” and eventually allowing space freight to compete with airplane freight prices. SpaceX has run successful test flights recently, but a fully reusable rocket by the end of this year could be a stretch.AI Will Become Smarter Than a Human This Year—and Smarter Than All of Humanity in 2035Musk has been both deeply involved in AI’s development and deeply doomer-y about its meaning for years. (See: his ongoing lawsuits against OpenAI, its founders, and Microsoft.) In Davos, Musk once again mentioned his wish to avoid a Terminator-like future. But he also indicated that it’s coming. “The rate at which AI is progressing, I think we have AI that is smarter than any human this year, and no later than next year,” he said. By 2035, it will be “smarter than all of humanity, collectively.”Per usual, whether Musk gets this one right comes down to definitions. What does “smarter” mean? This month, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said he didn’t believe researchers were anywhere close to creating what he called “God AI.” The technology is good at discrete tasks, but doing everything? “That ‘someday’ is probably on biblical scales, on galactic scales,” Huang said.CommentsBack to topTriangleYou Might Also LikeIn your inbox: The biggest tech news coming out of ChinaThe real AI talent war is for plumbers and electriciansBig Story: How ICE uprooted normal life in MinneapolisDumbphone owners have lost their mindsListen: Wikipedia’s founder on the threats to its futureAarian Marshall is a staff writer covering transportation and cities. 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Elon Musk delivered a significant array of predictions during his appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on January 22, 2026. His remarks, largely centered around technological advancements and their potential societal impact, were immediately met with attention and, as is often the case with Musk’s pronouncements, sparked considerable debate. This summary will detail those predictions, assessing their feasibility and potential ramifications, while acknowledging Musk’s historical track record of optimistic, yet often unrealized, forecasts.

Musk began his presentation with a discussion of his values, reflecting a prioritization of optimism and a willingness to embrace potential errors in pursuit of progress. He started with the notion of aliens, framing the lack of observed interaction with extraterrestrial life as evidence of its rarity, suggesting that humanity might be uniquely positioned in the universe. This assessment, based on the overwhelming absence of detected alien presence despite the vast number of satellites deployed, pointed toward a surprisingly conservative view of cosmological probability.

A central theme of his presentation revolved around the transformative potential of humanoid robots, specifically referencing Tesla’s ongoing development of “Optimus.” Musk repeatedly envisioned a future where robots, powered by ubiquitous artificial intelligence, would dramatically alter human life, saturating the global economy with billions of automated units. He projected that by 2027, Optimus robots would be available for sale, radically reducing the need for human labor and significantly expanding consumer access to goods and services. He envisioned a scenario where the global economy experienced an “unprecedented expansion” fueled by this automation, a notion that hinges on the assumption that an abundance of AI-powered robots could effectively satisfy all human needs. This projection, while ambitious, appeared to be predicated on the continued technological advancement of AI, a trajectory that remained, at that time, subject to considerable uncertainty.

Musk also detailed plans for widespread robotaxis by the end of 2026, mirroring earlier assertions. While Tesla had launched a limited robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, with a human safety monitor present in each vehicle, Musk’s ambition extended to “very widespread” adoption across the United States by the same date. This projection, given the regulatory hurdles and technological complexities involved in autonomous vehicle deployment, seemed optimistic, though consistent with the company’s ongoing efforts to secure approvals and operate in select states like Arizona, Florida, and Nevada.

Furthermore, Musk addressed the issue of human aging, acknowledging his limited prior involvement in this field. Despite this, he confidently predicted a “very solvable problem” regarding the aging process. He expressed the belief that once the underlying causes of aging were identified, a solution would become apparent. This statement, characterized by a degree of naivete given the immense biological complexity involved, suggests a belief in a relatively straightforward technological fix.

SpaceX’s continued development of the Starship rocket platform took up a significant portion of Musk’s discussion. He reiterated a previously stated commitment to achieving full reusability of Starship by the end of 2026, anticipating a 100-fold reduction in launch costs and the eventual ability of space freight to compete with air freight prices. This goal, while strategically vital for SpaceX’s ambitions, remained contingent on overcoming significant engineering challenges and securing continued investment.

Finally, Musk addressed the accelerating development of artificial intelligence, predicting its attainment of superior intelligence compared to humans by 2027, reaching the level of collective human intelligence by 2035. He acknowledged, and sought to mitigate, the potential risks associated with such advanced AI, referencing ongoing legal battles with OpenAI and Microsoft. His assessment of AI’s trajectory—a rapid, exponential increase in intelligence—was echoed by Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, though Huang tempered the expectation with a sobering note regarding the difficulty of achieving generalized, “God AI.”

In summary, Elon Musk presented a portfolio of ambitious predictions spanning robotics, transportation, human aging, space travel, and artificial intelligence. While his presentations consistently showcased a conviction in technological progress, the historical record of his forecasts suggested a degree of caution when evaluating the likelihood of these predictions materializing within the specified timelines.