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The Trade Desk’s Bumpy Ride Down

Recorded: Sept. 18, 2026, 9:08 a.m.

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The Trade Desk’s Bumpy Ride Down | AdExchanger

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Home The Big Story The Trade Desk’s Bumpy Ride Down

PODCAST: The Big Story
The Trade Desk’s Bumpy Ride Down By
Sarah Sluis

Friday, September 18th, 2026 – 5:00 am
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Here are some stats on The Trade Desk: The DSP laid off 15% of its staff before Labor Day. The stock is down 90% from its high seven quarters ago. It’s about to get booted out of the S&P 500. Nearly everyone in the C-suite has turned over in the past year.
While ad tech industry insiders may have their own view on what pushed The Trade Desk into revenue decline, Wall Street operates with its own criteria to evaluate companies. To help us see The Trade Desk through the eyes of a Wall Street analyst, we brought on Richard Kramer, the London-based independent analyst who follows The Trade Desk closely, and a longtime bear on the DSP.
Kramer offers his own take on our story last week, Why Wall Street Turned Against The Trade Desk. Our senior editor James Hercher chronicled The Trade Desk’s decline, including its recent staff reduction.

Wall Street was willing to conflate The Trade Desk’s recurring campaign revenue with the recurring revenue of SaaS companies, Kramer notes – until revenue declined and the music stopped. He’s also concerned about the loss of institutional knowledge that comes with C-suite turnover and the loss of many knowledgeable workers throughout the organization as a result of the layoffs. We also talk about the new challengers to The Trade Desk, from smaller DSPs like Pontiac and Tuple to the rise of Yahoo’s DSP, and of course, the competitor CEO Jeff Green long refused to acknowledge to investors: Amazon.
 

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The Trade Desk, a Demand-Side Platform (DSP), has experienced significant turbulence, as evidenced by recent operational and financial shifts that have drawn scrutiny from Wall Street analysts. The company undertook substantial staff reductions, laying off fifteen percent of its personnel prior to Labor Day, and its stock value has plummeted by ninety percent from its peak recorded in the previous seven quarters, leading to concerns about its potential removal from the S&P 500. Furthermore, there has been a high degree of executive turnover, with nearly all C-suite positions having changed within the past year, which raises concerns regarding the erosion of institutional knowledge within the organization.

Wall Street's evaluation of The Trade Desk was predicated on conflating the platform's recurring campaign revenue with the recurring revenue models seen in Software as a Service (SaaS) companies; however, this relationship dissolved once revenue declined and the market sentiment shifted. Richard Kramer, an independent analyst who closely tracks the company, expressed concern not only about the revenue decline but also about the loss of valuable institutional knowledge accompanied by the staff layoffs.

Beyond internal challenges, the competitive landscape also shifted, with emerging threats including smaller DSPs such as Pontiac and Tuple, the growing influence of Yahoo’s DSP, and the actions of competitor CEO Jeff Green who reportedly refused to acknowledge Amazon as a competitor to investors. Despite these pressures, the company's valuation reflects the market's reduced faith; the Trade Desk is currently valued at less than a third of its previous worth and retains only about one-tenth of its high-water market capitalization recorded in December 2024. This situation underscores the ongoing transformation within the digital media and advertising technology sector, which is characterized by evolving data dynamics, privacy concerns, and shifting platform hierarchies.